Emarketer has predicted that a potential TikTok ban in the U.S. could significantly impact the digital ad market. 

The U.S. Appeals Court has upheld the legislation to ban TikTok, prompting the platform to appeal to the Supreme Court. In its filing, the platform said the ban would “result in a 29% loss of total targeted global advertising revenue for 2025.”

With lawmakers urging Google and Apple to prepare for TikTok’s removal from app stores, marketers may move to alternative video platforms.  

Shift in ad spend across platforms

According to Emarketer, TikTok's potential ban is expected to disrupt digital advertising. Analysts from Emarketer forecast that the move may drive marketers to shift their ad spend toward alternatives like YouTube Shorts, Instagram Reels, and Snapchat Spotlight. 

Emarketer also anticipates more demand for short-form video ad space, potentially driving CPMs higher across these platforms. In November, it forecasted that TikTok’s U.S. ad CPMs are expected to increase by 15.6% in Q1 2025, pushing the average CPM to $7.03, still lower than Meta’s projected CPM of $12.53.

With the ban on TikTok and increasing demand for alternative platforms, companies are likely to charge higher rates.  Emarketer predicts higher CPM rates for ad spaces on Reels and Shorts. Meta and Google could see increased ad revenue as marketers move to their short-form offerings.

The platform says advertisers should carefully monitor user behavior and platform engagement as the ban unfolds. They should also prepare for increased competition and potential rise in ad cost. “Advertisers should prepare for greater competition over coveted short-form ad space,” the firm noted in its analysis.

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